EP2: Continuing the Rise: From 2023's Record Temps to 2024's Climate Challenges
Across India, temperatures soar to 42-44°C in Odisha & Rayalaseema, and marginally lower in other regions, surpassing typical averages by 4-6°C in West Bengal and by 2-4°C in parts of Andhra Pradesh and other areas, marking a significant departure from historical norms and indicating an intensifying heatwave crisis. – IMD
Table of Contents
Introduction.
The UAE Downpour: A Symptom of Climate Volatility.
Section 1: India's Heatwave Surge and Global Comparisons.
Section 2: The Causes: AC Use, Urbanization, and Vehicle Emissions.
Section 3: Policy Responses and Mitigation Efforts.
Section 4: Climate Challenges and Community Action.
Conclusion and Key Takeaways.
Introduction: Persistent Heatwaves 2024
In the shadow of a year that nudged the global warming threshold, India now contends with a heatwave of unprecedented ferocity. The temperature saga of 2024 paints a stark portrait of a warming India, with regions like Odisha and Rayalaseema soaring to 42-44°C, well above average.
Our narrative begins with a recap of "2023: Hottest Year Nears 1.5°C Global Warming Threshold," where we documented the critical junctures of a warming planet—moments that defined the climate conversation and highlighted the dire need for action.
Against this backdrop of persistent warmth, the UAE's recent calamity emerges as a grim harbinger of climate upheaval. On 16th April 2024, the city of Dubai withstood an onslaught of rain—an event of historical proportions that subverted the rhythm of a nation unaccustomed to such aquatic abundance.
The UAE Downpour: A Symptom of Climate Volatility
16th Apr’24 (Tuesday): Dubai witnessed, 259.5mm (10.2in) of rain, surpassing anything documented since the start of data collection in 1949 - BBC
The torrential rains in Dubai, a testament to the extremes of climate change, and India's ongoing struggle with escalating temperatures. These weather events serve as global wake-up calls, reinforcing the interconnectivity of our climate systems and the immediacy of the threat posed by our changing planet.
Stay tuned as we delve deeper into the multifaceted impact of the 2024 heatwave on India's populous cities and vulnerable communities, reflecting on a world where climate unpredictability has become the unsettling norm.
Section 1: India's Heatwave Surge and Global Comparisons
February 2024, the global surface temperature was 1.40°C (2.52°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F), making it the warmest February on record- NOAA
1.1 Analysis of India’s 2024 First Half Rising Temperatures
In the first half of 2024, India experienced notable temperature shifts. January 2024 saw unusually cold weather, particularly in Delhi, with the average maximum temperature across India at 17.9°C, a decrease of 2.2°C from the long-period average of 20.1°C recorded between 1970 and 2020. This was the coldest January since 2013. Subsequently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the country for the hot weather season (March to May), except in certain isolated areas like Northwest, Northeast, Central, and Peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures were expected.
1.2 A Brief Comparison of Global Temperature Trends and Forecasts
As we review temperature data and forecasts for 2024, both in India and globally, the overarching narrative is the unrelenting rise in temperatures—a trend that starkly continued from the previous decade. The year 2023 marked an alarming milestone as the hottest year on record, with global temperatures surging to 1.35°C above the preindustrial era, reflecting a decade's average increase of 1.2°C as per reports from NOAA. This alarming escalation, fueled by anthropogenic climate change and an intense mid-year El Niño, underscores the relentless march towards a warmer planet.
In response to these global trends, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates a warmer than usual period from March to May 2024 across most parts of India, with the exception of the northeastern region, the western Himalayas, the southwestern peninsula, and the west coast, which may see normal or slightly cooler temperatures. Concurrently, a forecast of above-normal rainfall in March hints at a mixed precipitation pattern, with potential deficits in the far southeastern and some northwestern regions. This nuanced forecast suggests an intricate interplay between temperature and precipitation dynamics for the upcoming year.
The Southern Hemisphere braces for its own set of challenges as the prevailing El Niño conditions place regions such as Western Australia and Southern Africa at risk of extreme heat and dry spells, pointing to a wider impact of these climate phenomena beyond India's borders.
With the WMO voicing concerns over the likelihood of 2024 surpassing previous temperature records, and NOAA predicting with 99% certainty that it will be among the top five (5) warmest years, the impetus for global climate vigilance and adaptive measures has never been stronger. The uncertainty of a potential La Niña phase later in the year offers the only respite in this narrative, with the possibility of ushering in cooler temperatures globally.
In summation, as we stand at the cusp of 2024, the IMD's projections for India, coupled with the global outlook, paint a sobering picture of a world grappling with the realities of climate change. It is a stark reminder of the urgent need for sustained climate action, resilience planning, and adaptive strategies to mitigate the inevitable challenges of our warming world.
1.3 Comparison of Forecasted Data of India and World Temp Data in 2024 with Respect to 2023
The average maximum temperature in India in April is expected to be 36°C, with on average 9 hours of sunshine per day. - TOI
The year 2024 is poised to continue the warming trend observed in previous years, potentially outpacing 2023, which was the hottest year on record. In India, above-normal temperatures are expected through the March-May 2024 period, with an increase in heatwave days across most regions except the northeast, western Himalayan region, southwest peninsula, and west coast. The persistence of El Niño into the early months of 2024 increases the likelihood of another year of extreme heat, although uncertainties remain with the potential shift into a La Niña phase, which could lead to cooler global temperatures.
Interplay of El Niño & La Niña
El Niño events occur irregularly at two- to seven-year intervals.
1.4 Parts of India Above Normal Heat Waves Compared to Last 5 Years in 2024
For early 2024, specific regions in India, particularly Central and North-Western India, experienced more frequent and severe heatwaves compared to the last five years. States such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, and Haryana were significantly affected, recording an upswing in heatwave days by 12-18 days compared to historical averages.
1.5 The Immediate Consequences of Heat on Urban Water Supply
The swell in temperatures due to climate change has led to a marked reduction in water availability, notably in sprawling urban areas like Bangalore and Chennai, where the impact is profound. In 2024, the distress caused by this phenomenon has been notably felt.
In Bangalore:
A severe water crisis gripped the city, primarily caused by a prolonged drought that depleted the Cauvery River—a source vital for both drinking water and agriculture.
The outskirts of Bangalore were especially hard-hit, with the BWSSB noting a critical situation, despite the central regions remaining relatively stable.
Karnataka’s government took unconventional measures, like deploying milk tankers from the Karnataka Milk Federation (Nandini), to transport water to the parched city.
Water tanker prices skyrocketed as operators capitalized on the crisis, adding financial strain to the city’s residents.
To address the long-term needs, the Chief Minister announced a significant expansion of the Cauvery water project in the state budget, aimed at providing water to an additional 12 lakh people.
In Chennai:
The situation was dire as the main reservoir's capacity plummeted to a mere 16%, the lowest since the 2019 crisis, which had witnessed the metropolis grappling with acute water shortages.
March’s water reserves hit their lowest point in years, signaling an urgent call for sustainable water management and conservation practices.
These situations underscore the necessity for investment in resilient infrastructure and the adoption of robust policies to combat the adverse effects of a warming climate, thereby securing the water needs of India's urban dwellers.
Section 2: The Causes: AC Use, Urbanization, and Vehicle Emissions
In the last 50 years, India has seen 700+ heat waves, resulting in 17,000+ deaths. AC ownership tripled since 2010, now at 24 per 100 households, driven by increasing affluence and the nation's climatic conditions.- IEA
2.1 Impact of Air Conditioning on Climate Change
The rising use of air conditioners (ACs) in residential and commercial settings is significantly impacting climate change and contributing to rising temperatures in India. Key data includes:
Currently, only 8% of the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest parts of the world have ACs, compared to 90% in the US and Japan.
The use of entry-level ACs, which are affordable but inefficient, poses a significant climate risk due to their potent refrigerants and high energy consumption.
Direct and indirect emissions from room ACs could lead to a 0.5°C increase in global warming by 2100.
In India, where AC ownership has surged to 24 units per 100 households since 2010, it is expected to grow fortyfold by 2050, representing over 25% of global emissions from room ACs in a business-as-usual scenario.
The electricity demand for space cooling in India rose by 21% from 2019 to 2022, now accounting for nearly 10% of the national electricity demand.
2.2 Rising Vehicle Pollution and Its Effects
Vehicle emissions are a critical source of air pollution and a contributing factor to climate change, particularly in urban areas:
Vehicles emit a range of pollutants including CO2 and nitrous oxide, which contribute to the urban heat island effect and global warming.
The highest emission peaks in Indian cities occur between 8:00 AM and 10:00 AM, correlating with morning traffic and predominantly cold starts of vehicles, which are less efficient in controlling emissions.
Indian cities like New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, and Kolkata are among the highest contributors to nitrous oxide emissions due to vehicular traffic.
2.3 Urbanization and Its Impact on Climate
The rapid urbanization and development of high-rise buildings in India exacerbate heat retention in urban areas, contributing to the urban heat island (UHI) effect:
Urban areas experience significantly higher temperatures than rural areas due to heat absorption by buildings, roads, and other infrastructure.
High-rise buildings contribute to higher local temperatures by absorbing and re-emitting heat.
The construction materials used in urban development, such as concrete and asphalt, store heat during the day and release it at night, intensifying local heat effects.
Mid-Article Call to Action (CTA)
Explore Deeper: "Navigating Delhi's Air Quality Crisis" As we discuss the impacts of urbanization and rising vehicle emissions, the situation in Delhi provides a stark example of how these factors converge to affect air quality. Dive deeper into this issue with our feature article, "AQI Delhi: Navigating The Air Quality Crisis And Solutions" on SD Blog Nation. This piece explores how Delhi's AQI becomes a "worst nightmare" during winter, exacerbated by factors like stubble burning and festive fireworks. Learn more about how this crisis affects daily life and what measures are being taken to manage it.
Section 3: Policy Responses and Mitigation Efforts
Come May 2024, the Bengaluru Water Supply and Sewerage Board plans to activate the Cauvery Phase 5 project with a capacity of 775 MLD, aiming to supply 110 liters of potable water every day to 12 lakh residents. This initiative is estimated to cost Rs. 5,550 crore.- CM Siddaramaiah
3.1 Governmental Strategies and Policy Initiatives
Bangalore:
Health Advisories: The Karnataka Health and Family Welfare department has issued advisories urging people to avoid outdoor activities during peak afternoon hours to mitigate health risks associated with high temperatures.
Water Distribution and Management: The state government plans to utilize milk tankers from Karnataka Milk Federation to distribute water across Bangalore, alongside commandeering private borewells to bolster the city's water supply.
Water Management Plan: Bangalore is developing an integrated water management strategy focusing on supply augmentation, demand management, conservation, and stakeholder engagement. This plan is crucial for sustainable water use and management in the city.
Water Reuse Projects: By 2024, the city aims to complete the construction of indirect potable reuse plants capable of treating 260 million liters per day, significantly enhancing the urban water cycle.
Chennai:
Green Infrastructure: Initiatives to develop green metropolitan infrastructure are underway, focusing on preserving natural water bodies and enhancing urban greenery.
Water Supply Enhancement: The Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewage Board (CMWSSB) plans to supply 110 liters of drinking water daily to 12 lakh residents by May 2024, at a cost of Rs 5,550 crore.
Infrastructure Upgrades: Comprehensive upgrades to underground drainage systems are scheduled for completion by December 2024, improving sanitation and water management.
Water Conservation Strategies: Investments are being made in rainwater harvesting, water reuse programs, and irrigation efficiency to increase water availability in reservoirs and conserve vital flood plains and lakes.
3.2 Broader Solutions and Mitigation Strategies
National and Local Measures:
Heatwave Management Guidelines: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has developed guidelines to assist state governments in managing and mitigating heatwaves.
Health and Labor Advisories: The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has issued nationwide advisories for heatwave preparedness. Similarly, the Ministry of Labour and Employment advises rescheduling work hours to cooler times of the day during heatwaves.
Heat Health Action Plans (HHAP): Implemented in select cities, these plans aim to provide immediate relief and long-term strategies to cope with heat stress.
Community and Technological Interventions:
Solar-Powered Appliances: Adoption of solar energy to power fans and air conditioners is becoming more widespread as a sustainable way to cool homes.
Cool Roofs and Greening Projects: Implementing cool roofs and expanding urban green spaces are effective in reducing urban heat islands and improving local microclimates.
Public Cooling Centers: Several cities have established cooling centers to provide refuge during the hottest parts of the day, significantly reducing heat-related health risks.
Case Studies of Successful Mitigation Strategies:
National Climate Action Plan: India's commitment to net-zero emissions by 2070 underlines significant national efforts towards climate change mitigation.
Community-led Adaptation in Kerala: Leveraging traditional knowledge and community engagement, Kerala shows how localized actions can build resilience against climate change impacts.
State-Level Climate Initiatives: The Climate Group’s India States Climate Leadership Project highlights effective climate action practices across Indian states, showcasing successful adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Disaster Risk Management: Documented case studies highlight how integrated approaches to climate resilience and disaster risk management are effectively being implemented in Maharashtra and beyond.
Section 4: Climate Challenges and Community Action
By 2070, India targets net zero emissions, aiming for 50% renewable energy by 2030, reducing projected carbon by 1 billion tonnes, expanding non-fossil capacity to 500 GW, and cutting carbon intensity over 45%.- PM Modi COP26 (Glasgow)
4.1 India's Climate Challenges and Socio-economic Considerations
The year 2024 is projected to experience intensified climate-related challenges due to an ongoing significant El Niño event. These challenges include:
Increased Heatwaves: With rising temperatures, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, endangering human health, disrupting agriculture, and stressing ecosystems.
Weather Pattern Disruption: A warming climate alters typical weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events such as storms, floods, and droughts which affect agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure.
Agricultural Impact: Elevated temperatures affect crop yields and livestock health, reducing agricultural productivity. Droughts stemming from increased temperatures can exacerbate water scarcity, undermining crop growth and food security.
Water Scarcity: Higher temperatures contribute to water shortages, affecting availability for drinking, agriculture, and industry. This can result in significant community and ecological impacts.
Ecosystem Disruptions: Temperature rises can lead to habitat shifts, biodiversity changes, and threats to species survival, causing cascading effects on food chains and ecosystem services.
Health Risks: The health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions is particularly at risk due to heat-related illnesses, respiratory issues, and an increase in vector-borne diseases.
Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise: Global warming contributes to sea level rise, which leads to coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion, particularly affecting low-lying areas and coastal communities.
These multifaceted consequences demand comprehensive and proactive measures to mitigate climate change impacts and protect vulnerable groups and ecosystems.
4.2 Encouraging Community Engagement: Preventive Tips and Health Advisories
Community action is critical in combating the effects of climate change. Here are some recommended preventive tips and health advisories:
Preventive Tips:
Limit Sun Exposure: Avoid going out between noon and 3 PM when the sun is at its strongest.
Hydration: Drink plenty of water regularly, even if not feeling thirsty.
Appropriate Clothing: Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose, and breathable cotton clothes.
Reduce Physical Exertion: Avoid engaging in strenuous activities during high temperatures.
Travel Preparedness: Always carry water when traveling.
Avoid Certain Beverages: Steer clear of alcohol, tea, coffee, and carbonated soft drinks that dehydrate the body.
Sun Protection: Use protective gear like goggles, umbrellas, hats, and appropriate footwear when outdoors.
Cooling Measures: Utilize fans, damp clothing, and frequent cool baths.
Vehicle Safety: Never leave children or pets in parked vehicles.
Dietary Choices: Opt for lighter meals that are easier to digest.
Health Advisories:
Guideline Dissemination: Distribute the National Action Plan on Heat-Related Illnesses guidelines to all districts.
Action Plans: Implement Heat-Health Action Plans at the state level as part of the State Action Plan on Climate Change and Human Health.
Data Reporting: Begin daily submissions of data on heatstroke cases, emergency attendance, and total deaths from heat-related causes starting March 1, 2024.
Early Warnings: Share early warning of heatwaves issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) with health facilities and vulnerable populations.
Public Awareness: Continuously issue health advisories and plan Information, Education, and Communication (IEC) activities to raise public awareness about precautions against extreme heat.
These tips and advisories are designed to enhance community resilience and encourage individual and collective action to navigate the challenges posed by a warming climate effectively.
Conclusion and Key Takeaways
As we reflect on the complex climate scenario projected for 2024, here are ten critical points that encapsulate the essence of the climate crisis and the heatwave forecast:
Rising Temperatures: 2024 is set to be one of the hottest years on record due to a significant El Niño event, contributing to global warming and intensified heatwaves .
Increased Heatwaves: India will see an increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing severe risks to human health, agricultural stability, and natural ecosystems .
Disrupted Weather Patterns: The warming climate will likely disrupt traditional weather patterns, leading to more severe storms, floods, and droughts, affecting critical infrastructures and livelihoods .
Agricultural Impact: Higher temperatures are expected to adversely affect crop yields and livestock, compounding food security challenges especially in vulnerable regions .
Water Scarcity: The heat will exacerbate existing water scarcity issues, impacting water availability for drinking, agriculture, and industry, particularly in urban centers like Bangalore and Chennai .
Ecosystem Changes: Rising temperatures will disrupt ecosystems, threatening biodiversity and the survival of various species, which could alter food chains and ecosystem services .
Health Risks: The increase in temperature will pose direct health risks, particularly to vulnerable populations, increasing the prevalence of heat-related illnesses and vector-borne diseases .
Coastal Hazards: Sea level rise and coastal flooding are anticipated to worsen, driven by the melting of glaciers and ice caps, affecting coastal and low-lying communities globally .
Socio-economic Impacts: The compound effects of heatwaves, water scarcity, and agricultural disruption will have profound socio-economic implications, necessitating robust policy responses and community resilience strategies .
Community Engagement: It's vital for communities to engage proactively with climate action plans, utilizing preventive tips and health advisories to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures and to adapt to the evolving climate landscape .
Call to Action
As we navigate these challenging times, sharing experiences and strategies can greatly enhance our collective response to climate change. We encourage all readers to share their stories of climate action and community engagement on 'SDZenZone' to inspire and inform others. Together, we can forge a path towards a more resilient and sustainable future. Join the conversation and let us know how you are making a difference in your community!
Closing Note: Urgent Climate Action Needed
The evidence is clear: 2024 could mark one of the hottest years on record. This imminent threat requires immediate action from each of us. You can make a significant impact through individual actions like reducing energy use, supporting sustainable practices, and educating yourself and others about climate change. Collectively, we can amplify our impact by advocating for sound environmental policies, participating in community resilience projects, and supporting leaders committed to sustainability.
This is our moment to act—both personally and together—to forge a resilient future in the face of our warming world. Let's rise to this challenge and ensure our actions today safeguard our planet for tomorrow. The time to turn the tide on climate change is now; let’s each play our part.
Reference
India Meteorological Department Seasonal Forecast and IMD Press Release
Top 10 Ways to Navigate the Bangalore Water Shortage in 2024
Satellite Images Reveal the Extent of Chennai’s Water Shortage
Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Implications for Chennai
How Does a Flood-prone City Run Out of Water? Inside Chennai’s Crisis
Rethinking wastewater: Chennai’s journey towards water security
Chennai water crisis: Govt promises clean drinking water by 2024
Dubai submerged in floods as UAE gets over a year’s worth of rain in just a few days
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